Chronic. Even before the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin had become Emmanuel Macron’s number one concern. Discuss with the Russian autocrat, limit his capacity for harm as much as possible, not miss the moment when the possibility of a negotiation would take shape. Such were and such remain the objectives of the French president who, wearing his French and European double hat, exposes himself without counting on the international scene, to the point of having difficulty landing on the national scene.
For a few weeks, the benefits dominated. The French gave reason to the President of the Republic to have done everything to try to avoid the conflict then they put themselves under his protection when the Russian troops invaded their neighbor on February 24th. Many political scientists then spoke of the“flag effect” to qualify the spectacular leap forward in voting intentions in its favour: 6.5 points better than in ordinary times and the 30% mark crossed in the sixth wave (early March) of the Ipsos-Sopra Steria electoral survey in partnership with Cevipof and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation for The worlda decisive advantage when he entered the campaign on March 4.
The fear that instinctively drives citizens to put themselves under the protection of the presidential shield was not the only reason for this strong improvement. Anticipated by a very small number of actors, the Ukrainian tragedy validated a posteriori the analyzes developed since the beginning of the five-year term by Emmanuel Macron: the return of the tragic in history, the desire for affirmation of authoritarian regimes, the concomitant fragility democracies, the need for the countries of the European Union to unite and strengthen their energy and strategic sovereignty as quickly as possible.
This has thus confirmed what Sylvain Fort, former adviser to Emmanuel Macron, calls in the review two thousand twenty-two (Robert Laffont editions) the “emergency doctrine” which underpinned its action for five years and made it possible to dynamite the partisan game: from global warming to the return of war in Europe via the pandemic, the priorities to be dealt with have become so vital that it is no longer time to conform to the slow rhythm of left-right alternations to hope to do so. We must act quickly and strongly. When it broke out, the war in Ukraine in fact handicapped all of Emmanuel Macron’s competitors, either because they had nothing stronger to say on this subject than he (Valérie Pécresse and Anne Hidalgo), or because they had to make people forget their past complacency with regard to Vladimir Poutine (Eric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen and, to a lesser extent, Jean-Luc Mélenchon).
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