Inflation and economic uncertainties weigh on the real estate market

At the end of the confinements of spring 2020 and 2021, the dynamism of sales of old homes had surprised, and the two years ended with a record of 1.2 million transactions. This is not the case in 2022, the first months of which mark a decline due to the wait-and-see attitude of buyers. Jean-Marc Torrollion, president of the National Federation of Real Estate (Fnaim), anticipates, for the year, a drop of 15% to 20% in sales. Which, with a little less than 1 million, however, would not make it a bad year.

The first results communicated by the notaries of Greater Paris, Thursday March 31, agree on this prediction, since, between November 2021 and January 2022, they recorded 38,160 transactions, or 14% less compared to the same period ago. a year. “But sales volumes remain 5% above their average for the past ten years”they qualify.

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The Bien’ici advertising site, which publishes the offers of 12,000 real estate agents and agents, notes that they remain online a little longer: forty-five days on average in January 2022, compared to forty in August 2021. In addition, purchase intentions in the next twelve months will drop from 9.5% to 7.1% of Internet users who consult them. The number of contacts per ad is also down, especially in Brittany and Normandy – regions, it is true, that have been overheated for two years.

The wait-and-see attitude can also be seen in prices, which are stagnating or falling. “The erosion continues in the capitalnote the notaries, with a decline in the average price per square meter of 1.6% since 1er November 2021, to settle at 10,440 euros. » “Compared to the high point in the summer of 2020, the decline reached 4%comments Thomas Lefebvre, scientific director of MeilleursAgents. Even if it does not erase the almost 20% increase of the last five years, it reflects a loss of attractiveness of the capital. Will the square meter go back below the symbolic bar of 10,000 euros? »he asks himself, specifying: “However, I do not believe in a spectacular drop in Parisian prices. »

“The key to the phenomenon is credit”

In large cities, the increase is no longer relevant. It is more about stability. According to the MeilleursAgents site, the price per square meter in Lille has changed only slightly (–0.5% between 1er January and the 1er April 2022). The same goes for Nice (–0.1%), Lyon (+0.1%), Bordeaux, Toulouse, Montpellier and Strasbourg (+0.3%). He did not move to Rennes or Nantes. Marseille is the only one to stand out by continuing to rise, by 0.8% in the first quarter (in reality, it is catching up). Rural areas do not experience these variations. Prices there are still rising, according to MeilleursAgents, by +1.2% this quarter.

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