The 2022 election campaign is obviously singular and strange: marked by a considerable distancing and a level of abstention which will undoubtedly be particularly high, even historic if it exceeds 28%, it is the sign of deep democratic fatigue and disruption of a certain number of rules of the game. However, the French did not remain outside this campaign, and many powerful movements of opinion took place in three months. It is this paradox that must be clarified.
To begin with, let’s say it clearly: rarely has an election campaign appealed to the French so little. Five days before the election, 75% are interested in the presidential election, seven points less than in 2017, and only 50% give it an interest rating of 9 or 10 on a scale of 0 to 10. There are several reasons for this: the fatigue and anxiety of the French first of all, which primarily characterize their emotional state and encourage them to withdraw into themselves more than to participate in a large collective and civic scene of choice. a President of the Republic.
” Worry “, “uncertainty” and ” tired “ are mentioned by respectively 47%, 45% and 40% of our fellow citizens; ” hope “ and ” trust “ by 28% and 17%. ” Anger “ and “revolt” by 17% and 14%. This does not mean that the country is satisfied, on the contrary it is clearly dissatisfied and says so. But that he is not drained by a noisy and mobilizing anger. The pandemic, then, contributes to this fatigue and for a long time froze the debates, anesthetizing the campaign. And the French now aspire, in this exit from the health crisis which never stops stretching, to find individual and family pleasures. Finally, the war in Ukraine, after a phase of stupefaction and deep anguish, altered the follow-up of a strictly national electoral dispute, despite the link that could be made with the position of certain candidates. Three key factors, but which do not explain everything.
To these root causes and in a certain way external to the countryside are in fact added others which are specific to it. And first of all, the candidates themselves: seven of them – we have not stressed this enough – were already candidates in 2017 and sometimes even in 2012. The French know them, they are for the latter without surprise and often smoother than before. Of the five new ones, opinion polls tell us that Fabien Roussel (Communist Party), Yannick Jadot (Europe Ecologie-Les Verts), Anne Hidalgo (Socialist Party) and Valérie Pécresse (Les Républicains) did not create, c is an understatement, of strong effects in the opinion. Finally, the only atypical and particularly divisive phenomenon, which also explains his breakthrough, was Eric Zemmour (Reconquest!). But in the mode of rejection and worry rather than envy. As for Mr. Roussel, he will certainly have found his singularity, but the phenomenon remains marginal.
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