the dangers of an uncertain ballot

In Spézet, in Finistère, on April 5, 2022.

Four days before the first round of the French presidential election, Sunday April 10, a more than uncertain political horizon is emerging. If the final that seems to be emerging between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen is the one planned for several months, the gap between the outgoing president and the far-right candidate continues to narrow, including in the projections of second round. In ambush, on the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon could well create a surprise.

At the end of this funny campaign – where the political debate has always taken second place, first behind the Covid-19 epidemic then behind the war in Ukraine – the state of mind of the French is a potentially explosive. They are thus not very interested in an election which has seen no debate between the candidates, and even less confrontation of projects. Some 37% of them feel close to “France angry and very rebellious”, 55% of that “dissatisfied” .

Read also: Presidential election 2022: at a glance, visualize the major divisions between the candidates

Everything happens as if the current movements were only waiting for the day of the vote to emerge in broad daylight. These are the main lessons of the ninth wave of the electoral survey carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria in partnership with the Sciences Po Political Research Center (Cevipof) and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation for The world.

The strength of our panel is its amplitude, since the sample used is 12,600 people. Voting intentions in the first round are calculated from respondents “certain to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, or 8,341 people. Result: the margins of error for the first round are very low, between 0.2 and 0.9 points. The survey was carried out from April 2 to 4, ten days after the previous one.

A presumed known but close final

With respectively 26.5% of voting intentions (margin of error of plus or minus 0.9 point) and 21.5% (same margin of error), Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen should once again face each other in second round, as in 2017. Mr. Macron – who formalized his candidacy late – has always been in the lead since October 2021. However, he is experiencing an erosion of voting intentions in his favor (– 4 points in one month) when , over the same period, the far-right contender gained 7 points. It must be said that Mr. Macron’s campaign seems laborious and he himself seems distant, carrying unpopular measures (the retirement age pushed back to 65 or the counterparties required for active solidarity income). Proof of its dynamics, Mme Le Pen convinces voters of Eric Zemmour (who collects 10%, margin of error of plus or minus 0.6 point) but also of Mr. Macron.

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