“Le Monde” keeps the synopsis of the campaign for the presidential election of 2022: a daily update is published every evening at 7 p.m., which reviews the political events of the past day and discusses the appointments to come.
News of the day. Capital uncertainty at four days of the first round
This will boost the crystal ball market. The outcome of the first round of the presidential election, Sunday April 10, seems more uncertain than ever, according to the ninth wave of the opinion poll carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria with Cevipof and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for The world, conducted from April 2 to 4 with a – particularly massive – sample of 8,341 people.
We first learn that, if the Macron-Le Pen duel seems the most likely, the gap between the two contenders has narrowed drastically. In one month, the Head of State has lost four points (to 26.5% of voting intentions, margin of error of 0.9 point), when his rival gained seven (to 21.5%, even margin of error). No doubt Mr. Macron’s proposals to raise the retirement age and to condition the active solidarity income (RSA) to an activity of the beneficiary have weighed in the popular electorate. If she reached the second round, the candidate of the National Rally would benefit from an excellent report from the voters of Eric Zemmour. To a lesser extent, she could also count on some of those of Valérie Pécresse and Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The candidate of La France insoumise garners 16% of voting intentions (margin of error of 0.8 points). He is distanced, but in ambush: since the withdrawal of Christiane Taubira, at the beginning of March, he has recorded a dynamic in his favor, which could consolidate calls for “useful vote” on the left – because he now dominates this political family – knowing that the electorates of the ecologist Yannick Jadot and the communist Fabien Roussel are proving to be volatile. With 8.5% of the voting intentions (margin of error of 0.6 point), Valérie Pécresse continues her tumble.
There remains a major unknown, that of abstention. Some 80% of respondents say they are certain or almost certain to vote: this is five points less than in 2017. Crushed by the war in Ukraine, the campaign, sluggish, does not seem to be able to arouse the traditional renewed mobilization of last days. However, abstentionists are overrepresented among workers, farmers and employees. This could penalize the far-right candidate, because it is in these electorates that she achieves her best scores.
picture of the day
Anne Hidalgo is indeed on the photo – in very small, of course, like the volume of voting intentions for the Socialist candidate, measured, in the last wave of the Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for The world, just 2% (margin of error of plus or minus 0.3 point). The mayor of Paris will have campaigned until the end, being, this Wednesday, in Cachan (Val-de-Marne), where she attended a hip-hop show “made possible thanks to the unfailing commitment of local elected officials and educators”. After having made youth her priority, the socialist insisted, in her last days of campaign, on culture, a subject that remained under the radar of most of the other candidates, whom she had said she wanted to put back ” In the center “Sunday, during his Parisian meeting at the Cirque d’Hiver.
sentence of the day
“Me, what I see are these new bands of barbarians. »
The favorite hobbyhorse of the right – security – entered the electoral game, since Monday, with the broadcast of a video documenting the death of Jeremie Cohen, February 16, in Bobigny. It shows the young man, of the Jewish faith, hit by a tram after a violent altercation with a dozen people. On Franceinfo, Valérie Pécresse saw in this drama the illustration of a “total impunity that the government has organized”referring to “new bands of barbarians”. That the investigation did not retain, at this stage, any anti-Semitic motive for the attack, did not prevent it from deploring the “new anti-Semitism in a certain number of districts of France”.
“You can’t live free being afraid of transport, being afraid of the outdoors, being afraid of walking around at night”, added Marine Le Pen on Europe 1. The National Rally candidate denounced the warning against “political manipulation” of the case, launched on Tuesday by Emmanuel Macron: for her, “the accusation of recovery is the accusation, in general, made by those who do not feel very comfortable on the subject”. In the eyes of Eric Zemmour, questioned on France Inter, the only instrumentalization is that of “law of silence” in whose name, he believes, “the prosecution has done everything to stifle this affair”.
In the archives of the “World”: in 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy seeks to convince the popular electorate
In early April 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy put the bar to the people. The outgoing president realized, as our journalist Arnaud Leparmentier tells it, that the “reconquest of the popular electorate” is her “only chance of being re-elected”, faced with a very socialist François Hollande who proposed nothing less than 75% taxation of income above one million euros. The outgoing president reacted, suggesting “taxing tax exiles”. Besides, “He who hates referendums, he suddenly proposes to consult the French directly”.
To get closer to voters, the Head of State also intends to talk to them about cars. He is toying with the idea of slashing the price of driving licenses and reducing the time it takes to obtain this “open sesame for the active life”as described by the Minister of the Interior, Claude Guéant.
Another idea on the table, a gasoline check, comparable to meal vouchers, which would be financed by employers and by the State. But the subject divides at the top of the State: the “pure politics”such as Councilor Patrick Buisson, want “concrete gestures towards modest and rural populations”while the “budgetary” refuse to “subsidize gasoline”preferring to strive, upstream, to lower prices. “The petrol check is in itself stupid, but there is a price to pay to win an election”, comments brutally close to the head of state. Too stupid or too expensive paid, it seems, for Nicolas Sarkozy, who will eventually abandon this track.
Agenda for Thursday April 7
At the microphone. No less than six meetings of candidates are on the program for Thursday, April 7. Yannick Jadot opens the ball at 6 p.m. in Nantes, while at 6:30 p.m. Fabien Roussel will follow at the Zenith in Lille and Marine Le Pen in Perpignan. Valérie Pécresse will be in Lyon from 7 p.m. Philippe Poutou is expected from 8 p.m. in Toulouse, as is Eric Zemmour, at the Palais des sports in Paris – previously, the Reconquest candidate! will have visited the basilica of Vézelay (Yonne). Also of note, a public meeting in Bordeaux with François Bayrou and Gabriel Attal, government spokesperson. Lemonde.fr will have his eyes and ears everywhere.
In the street. Unions and collectives of caregivers call to demonstrate in Paris, at 2:30 p.m., on the occasion of World Health Day.